Boxing vs. MMA: The Inevitable Showdown - Part II

Lets’s talk about how to make some real money…but not on this fight!

Folks I’m a gambling man, but this is one fight I would not bet.

An analysis of the two fighter’s strengths and weaknesses will explain why this historic match is up for grabs.

Age and physical shape comparison of James Toney and Randy Couture:

At 47, Randy Couture is 6 years older than James Toney. But you wouldn't know it by just looking at them. Couture, an ageless phenomenon, obviously takes pride keeping himself in top form year round with respect to diet and training, while Toney does not. At 235, Tony is carrying 40 to 50 pounds more than he should for this fight. Let's not forget, Toney reigned in the pros as a middleweight. At a height of 5'10", Toney is really a 160 pound fighter. To Toney's credit, he has been able to seize world titles in four different weight classes ranging from middleweight to heavyweight. But winning the heavyweight title was arguably more due to his exceptional abilities as well as weakness in the division - not proportional gains in muscular mass and strength. Toney is not a natural heavyweight and the extra weight he brings into the Octagon against Couture is going to hurt more than help. Although the additional weight may help add some power, it will do so at the cost of precious speed. Like an agile matador, speed is what Toney primarily needs to keep Couture at bay. Despite whatever excuses Toney makes, the extra weight will only serve to make him a slower, thus easier target for Couture to take down.

Another aspect to take into account is the battle wear and tear that ages a fighter. In a lot of the Latin American countries, kids start boxing as early as 5 years of age. By the time they are 18, many have matured into contenders or even world champions. In the case of Wilfredo Benitez, he won the Nationals at 12 years of age beating up full grown men (they lied about his age so he could fight in the tournament) and at 17 he won the Junior Welterweight Championship of the World. Yet at 22 he looked like he was going on 40. My point is that "wars" take their toll and both Toney and Couture have had their share of wars. In terms of attrition, who suffered more?

Many people have commented on the correlation of brain damage from boxing and Toney's speech as an indication of him being shot. Without question, if you had as many fights as Toney, it is going to take its toll. But it is worth pointing out that Toney has never been knocked out, while Couture has. A medical point to note is that every time a man gets knocked out (concussion), he increasingly becomes more susceptible to subsequent concussions. You can add sheaths of muscle to protect your body at age 47, but you cannot do the same with your brain. I am sure Couture's age and susceptibility to concussions is a factor both men have taken into their game plan account.

Skill Factors that favor a victory for Randy Couture over James Toney:

Although Couture does not possess the boxing skills or acumen of Toney, he possibly has enough to get into the pocket and take Toney down. Toney cannot afford to be tied up - not even once. Falling into a clinch is a normal occurrence for a boxer. It is not something they worry about – on the contrary clinching is typically a form of defense that is employed when a boxer is in trouble and needs time to regain his composure. This option is totally off the table for Toney. Having to make these adaptations could significantly mitigate Toney’s normal sense of ease and fighting ability. And we are not even talking about him having to deal with kicks should they enter the picture. Also, part of Toney’s success in the ring can be attributed to his trademark ability to roll with punches. But once again, "leaning back" and "rolling with punches" are tactics that he will more than likely have to shelve against Couture in order to avoid the exposure of take downs.

Many MMA fans are quick to point out how Kimbo Slice punched out Ray Mercer. But that is not the underlying reason why the ex-heavyweight champion of the world lost. Watch the fight. Look at Mercer anxiously trying to avoid being taken down as opposed to punching. The ex-heavyweight champ's skills are nowhere to be found, leaving just a man instinctively clinging to survive. Mercer at that point in his MMA career knew little in the way of evasion and therefore was totally out of his realm of comfort. If Mercer and Kimbo’s fight at that time were simply restricted to just purely throwing hands, you would have witnessed a totally different outcome.

Clearly Couture has an arsenal of tools, which he can effectively use to distract Toney as a means to take him down. At 41 years of age, Toney is going to have to completely readjust his style to accommodate the UFC's best wrestler and most seasoned warrior. And that alone is a big factor that plays against him.

Skill Factors that favor a victory for James Toney over Randy Couture:

Punching power, hand skills and fistic acumen goes to Toney. Many in MMA have scoffed at the futility of Toney taking grappling lessons, since any attempt to submit Couture would be absurd. Toney, I am sure knows this as well. My bet is that his camp is focusing primarily on evasion, similarly the way Chuck Liddell does. Couture has been knocked out by Liddell, who prefers to strike than grapple. Many boxing experts, including Teddy Atlas, have a lot of respect for Liddell's punching power. But it is debatable if it is equal to Toney's. One thing is certain, Liddell does not have the boxing acumen Toney possesses. And Couture will be facing someone with power and hand skills that he has never faced before. Just like Toney will be foreign to many of Couture's MMA techniques, Couture will not be accustomed to Toney's punching angles, power, and combinations that even the best in boxing could not handle. And if Couture had trouble taking shots from from the likes of Chuck Liddel and Brock Lesner, he is going to find himself in even graver danger here. If Couture gets caught, it's "Lights Out!."

These are the immediate reasons that come to my mind for believing this match up could be anyone's fight. Please feel free to comment! I would enjoy hearing your point of view.

Yours in strength,

Coach Craig Smith

Ageless Adonis

P.S. If you have not read Boxing vs. MMA: The Inevitable Showdown between Bob Arum and Dana White - please be sure to do so by clicking this link.